The Trump administration has begun returning more than $100 billion to businesses and importers that paid tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The refunds are already improving bottom lines and, according to Torsten Slok of Apollo, are also nudging gross domestic product higher.
Corporate earnings get a lift
Companies listed in the S&P 500 have reported $9.6 billion in additional earnings from the refunds. Apple alone said it will receive nearly $2.2 billion, while other major recipients include Nike, FedEx, Amazon and General Motors.
Contribution to GDP growth
Slok estimates the refund money will add about 0.2 percentage points to third-quarter GDP growth, which the Atlanta Fed says is on track for a 4.3 percent annualised rate. That would be a sharp rise from the 1.5 percent gain recorded in the second quarter and the 2.1 percent increase in the first quarter.
Other tailwinds at work
The refund boost is joining several other positive forces. Ongoing spending on artificial intelligence, tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and a reshoring of manufacturing are all supporting the economy. Slok notes that, after adjusting for seasonal quirks that reduced government payrolls and hospitality jobs, the economy would have added about 70,000 jobs in July, matching Wall Street expectations.
Consumer pressure and future use of funds
Some US consumers are suing firms to claim a share of the refunds for themselves. Companies such as Amazon, FedEx and UPS have said they will pass the money back to customers. Analysts at Bank of America observe that retailers are using the cash to fund promotions, offset freight costs and, in some cases, negotiate future purchase-order terms with brands. They also note that firms could invest the refunds in technology or return capital to shareholders.
What comes next?
Slok warns that markets may be underestimating the strength of the current growth cycle, which could keep interest rates higher for longer. With refunds already representing about 60 percent of the $166 billion collected in tariffs, the remaining funds could continue to influence corporate strategies and consumer pricing throughout the year.