Anthropic is preparing an initial public offering that it hopes will be one of the largest in the technology sector. In a recent investor briefing the company said its total addressable market, the revenue it could generate if it captured every relevant AI use case, exceeds $30 trillion.
Anthropic's $30 trillion TAM claim
The figure is meant to illustrate the full scope of work that could be performed by the company's AI models, ranging from drafting legal contracts to writing and reviewing software code. By treating the entire labour market for knowledge-intensive tasks as potential revenue, the company arrives at a number that eclipses the gross domestic product of the United States.
According to Alex Brunicki, co-founder and general partner at Backed VC, the estimate is based on the value of human labour that could be substituted across sectors such as legal, accounting, engineering and business process outsourcing.
"With products like Claude that write code, you could argue it replaces the work that humans do end-to-end, and so the TAM for those products is essentially the labour market for that work output," Brunicki said.
Why the figure draws scepticism
Critics point out that a $30 trillion market is larger than the annual US GDP of roughly $32 trillion, making the claim appear more aspirational than realistic. Fred Hickey, a technology analyst, described the projection as "absurd" and warned that such hyperbole could fuel a bubble in the AI sector.
Investors familiar with venture-capital valuation methods note that total addressable market numbers are often used as a narrative device rather than a concrete forecast. Retail investors, however, may take the headline-grabbing figure at face value, potentially inflating demand for the upcoming shares.
What investors are watching
Analysts say sophisticated investors will focus on Anthropic's near-term revenue targets rather than the lofty TAM. The company has indicated an ambition to approach $200 billion in annual sales by the end of the decade.
Recent data shows Anthropic's annualised revenue run-rate passed $65 billion in July, a substantial increase from $47 billion two months earlier. Yet, the pace of capital flowing into data-centre infrastructure and the level of debt required to sustain rapid expansion remain points of concern.
Comparisons with past tech bubbles
The reliance on future market size mirrors the dot-com era, when companies used optimistic projections to justify high valuations despite modest current earnings. While AI firms today generate more revenue than many early internet startups, the underlying risk of overvaluation persists.
Backed VC's Brunicki cautions that many AI startups are raising capital at "extremely high, frothy valuations" that may not be sustainable. He predicts that while some companies will become industry giants, a significant number could fail entirely.
As the IPO approaches, the market will likely assess whether Anthropic can translate its ambitious market narrative into tangible earnings, or whether the $30 trillion claim will remain a bold marketing line.