Ukraine has launched what President Volodymyr Zelensky described as a 40-day operation of drone strikes against targets deep inside Russia, reaching as far as Moscow and Saint Petersburg. The campaign targets logistics hubs, fuel depots, refineries and supply lines, and has also hit civilian areas causing casualties. The largest attack to date struck Moscow on Monday.
Coordinated political timing
The offensive coincides with two significant Western moves. On Tuesday, a NATO summit opened in Ankara, where allies are seeking to demonstrate that Kyiv is gaining momentum. At the same time, the European Union disbursed the first €3.2 billion instalment of a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared on social media weeks earlier that "the tide is turning", a phrase echoed across Western capitals. The G7 recently committed to increase air defence deliveries, consider extending production licences to Ukraine, and strengthen sanctions on Russian oil and gas sectors.
Battlefield reality diverges from narrative
Despite the drone campaign, Russian forces continue to advance in the Donbass. Moscow announced the capture of Kostiantynivka, the largest settlement taken since Mariupol, a key position on the route to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the Kremlin's ultimate objectives in the region. Russian troops are also making gains around Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Lyman and Rai-Oleksandrivka.
Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Russian oil production, causing fuel shortages acknowledged by President Vladimir Putin, and cut power in Crimea and the Russian-held part of Kherson region. However, analysts assess these attacks are unlikely to alter the war's overall trajectory.
Economic indicators show mixed picture
The International Monetary Fund in April raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.3 percentage points to 1.1%, citing higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict. Simultaneously, it lowered forecasts for the EU's three largest economies: Germany to 0.8%, France to 0.9% and Italy to 0.2%.
The Russian economy, while faltering, remains in a better position than much of the EU, according to the IMF data.
Political fractures in European support
War fatigue is evident. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary opted out of financing the EU loan. Hungary's new pro-EU government has not reversed that position. Bulgaria's new government has prohibited arms supplies to Ukraine.
Domestically, Ukraine faces growing opposition linked to aggressive mobilisation policies, described as "busification", the conscription of men seized off streets. The EU has proposed excluding military-age Ukrainian men (aged 23 to 60) from its temporary protection scheme.
Escalation risks analysed
Experts warn the drone campaign carries significant escalation risks. Matthew Blackburn of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs cautioned that if Moscow concludes its restraint is being exploited, it may shift strikes from Ukrainian infrastructure to European supply hubs and manufacturing sites enabling Kyiv's deep-strike capability.
"If Moscow decides its restraint within Ukraine is being exploited to impose humiliating damage on the Russian heartland, it may abandon strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in favour of the European supply hubs and manufacturing sites that make Kyiv's deep-strike campaign possible."
General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, recently noted that Russia has so far refrained from striking European targets because the cost of retaliation exceeded the cost of tolerance, but that calculus could change.
Historically, Russia has spared Kyiv's government centres and left Ukraine's energy grid untouched for the first eight months of the war, striking only after the Kerch Bridge attack in October 2022. The democratisation of deep-strike capability through low-cost drones removes the asymmetry that previously constrained escalation.
Diplomatic impasse
Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute argues it is the EU, not Russia, that has refused to negotiate. Moscow has engaged in sustained talks with Washington and abandoned several core demands, while Europeans condition negotiations on an unconditional ceasefire that amounts to a demand for Russian capitulation.
Russia holds State Duma elections on 20 September. Some analysts predict the ruling United Russia party may suffer losses to the Communists and the Liberal Democratic Party, both of which hold harder lines on the war than the Kremlin.
What a settlement could require
Analysts suggest any realistic peace settlement would involve territorial concessions from Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees short of NATO membership and Western troop deployments. Whether such terms would satisfy Putin remains unknown. The alternative, should exhaustion produce a ceasefire without a settlement, is a Kashmir-style condition of permanent insecurity.