Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at the energy intelligence firm Kpler, warned that Iran's push for a toll on the Strait of Hormuz could mark the end of the long-standing principle of free navigation at sea.
Toll talks in the Hormuz Strait
Iran has announced it may levy a service charge of between five and seven per cent on each barrel of oil that passes through the narrow waterway. If applied to other cargoes such as natural gas, petrochemicals, helium, fertiliser and container goods, the revenue could approach $20 billion a year.
Potential ripple effects across other chokepoints
Analysts fear that the move could set a precedent for other strategic passages. Nations that control the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Gibraltar and even the Bosporus Strait might feel pressure to introduce similar fees, turning natural resources into a new source of state revenue.
Expert views
"I think that the 'freedom of the seas' is dead," said Michelle Brouhard.
She added that the era of unimpeded maritime security is being rewritten, with higher costs likely to feed inflation and encourage on-shoring of industrial production.
"We look at the whole question of Hormuz tolls as mainly an Iranian bargaining chip that they're willing and able to give up for big sanctions relief and other things," said Bob McNally, former White House energy adviser.
McNally believes any tolls are more likely to be modest and voluntary, similar to the existing charges in the Malacca corridor.
"My expectation has been that money will be delivered to the Iranians in some way, shape, or form," said Gregory Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group.
Brew expects the Gulf Cooperation Council states to provide Iran with voluntary payments that cover the costs of managing the strait, rather than a per-vessel levy.
Why it matters
The principle of free navigation was enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and has underpinned global trade for decades. If tolls become commonplace, shipping companies could face higher insurance premiums, and the cost of everything that moves by sea, from oil to consumer goods, could rise.
What happens next
Negotiations between Tehran and the international community are expected to continue, with the United States and European states watching closely. Should Iran implement a toll, other coastal nations may feel compelled to follow suit, prompting a re-assessment of maritime law and potentially reshaping supply-chain strategies worldwide.