On 15 March, an estimated 100,000 supporters of Hungary's governing Fidesz party filled the boulevards and bridges of Budapest for the country's national day. Billed as a peace march against deeper involvement in the war in Ukraine, the rally doubled as a show of force for Viktor Orbán as he faces the most serious challenge to his 16-year rule from Péter Magyar and the upstart Tisza Party.
Campaign turns into spy thriller
In the final days before Sunday's vote, the tone has grown unusually dark. Both sides accuse the other of acting as proxies for foreign intelligence services, trading leaks of wiretaps, arrests and allegations of treason. The claims are dramatic, unprovable and dizzying. Even independent commentators such as former Green Party leader András Schiffer now allege that British, French, German, Polish and Baltic security services are meddling, while opposition-aligned journalists point to Russian interference and potential false-flag operations.
Zelensky cast as pantomime villain
Posters across the capital depict Volodymyr Zelensky reaching for Hungarian taxpayers' money or cackling at passers-by. As relations between Budapest and Kyiv have deteriorated, Ukraine personified by its president has become Orbán's primary antagonist. Political analyst Gábor Győri of the progressive Policy Solutions think tank says this is a tried-and-tested Fidesz tactic. With the opposition's strength rooted in Hungary's faltering economy, an external enemy is useful. Before Ukraine it was migrants and their NGO backers, then Brussels, then the international LGBT movement.
Since the war seems like a stalemate from a Hungarian perspective, and it hasn't moved that much in Hungary's direction, the recent effort has been to portray Ukraine as an active threat.
At the war's outset, Hungary condemned the Russian invasion, sent humanitarian aid and opened its borders to Ukrainian refugees despite Orbán's friendly ties with Vladimir Putin. Since then, Győri observes, the narrative has shifted from Russia being provoked to Ukraine being the culprit and an aggressive threat to Hungary.
Not all Budapest buys the message
In liberal districts, posters linking Magyar to Zelensky are routinely torn down or defaced with stickers reading "Vile, Deceitful Propaganda" or "Dirty Fidesz". But at the peace march, the message resonated. Behind a banner declaring "We will not become a Ukrainian colony!" the crowd booed Zelensky's name when Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó railed against the "Ukromafia". One attendee, Marco, 42, said Orbán is one of the few politicians proud to be Hungarian, while Magyar would take steps in Brussels against his own country.
Kyiv's diplomacy fuels the fire
The Ukrainian government bears some responsibility for the breakdown. The European Union has sided with Hungary and Slovakia in their dispute over Ukraine's closure of the Druzhba pipeline, which carries cheap Russian oil both countries depend on. Its smooth operation remains a central plank of Fidesz's electoral offer. After Zelensky appeared to threaten Orbán directly, the EU issued a rare reprimand to Kyiv. Hungary has since used its veto to block the EU funding package keeping the Ukrainian state afloat, while Hungarian intelligence arrested Ukrainian officers transporting cash across Hungary for purposes heavily implied to be nefarious.
Kyiv responded by arresting a Hungarian accused of running Budapest's spy network in Zakarpattia oblast, home to Ukraine's Hungarian minority and a long-standing irritant in bilateral ties. Neither Tisza nor the Ukrainian foreign ministry agreed to interview requests for this article. The Hungarian government offered unusual access to senior officials.
Three red lines, no compromise
Balázs Orbán, the prime minister's strategic adviser and campaign manager, outlined three irreconcilable disagreements. First, active financial and logistical support for the war against Russia. Second, EU membership for Ukraine, which would drag Hungary into the conflict and make it a net contributor. Third, Russian energy, which Hungary cannot reject while Middle East instability drives prices up. These, he said, are black-and-white issues: either Hungary surrenders or keeps its positions.
We don't want to finance the war, we don't want to give our weapons to them, and we don't want to send soldiers for Ukraine.
Magyar mirrors Orbán on Ukraine
Despite being portrayed as a pro-Kyiv radical, Magyar has avoided discussing the war on the trail. A former Fidesz functionary and conservative nationalist, he opposes sending weapons to Ukraine, insists Kyiv's EU bid should face a Hungarian referendum it would lose, and says weaning Hungary off Russian energy would take at least a decade. Hopes in Brussels or Kyiv of a post-election pivot appear unlikely to survive Magyar's own inclinations, let alone voter scepticism.
Echoes of 2022, but darker
Four years ago, the uncertainty of Russia's invasion helped Orbán turn a tight race into a landslide by presenting himself as the steady hand. That message is being replayed, but the rhetoric has escalated dramatically. Ukraine is now presented as a direct threat to Hungarian sovereignty. Both sides trade accusations of deep entanglement with foreign security services working against the national interest.
It is confusing and exhausting for foreign observers, and doubly so for Hungarian voters. Seventy-nine percent believe foreign intelligence agencies will attempt to meddle. On Easter Sunday, the Hungarian government, alongside ally Serbia, revealed what it claimed was a plot to sabotage the vital Turkstream gas pipeline with explosives. Magyar immediately dismissed it as a false flag to sway or delay the vote. As campaigning reaches its climax, the EU's most important election of the year has fully adopted the murky, paranoid tone of a spy novel.