Around 60,000 migrants, roughly the population of Loughborough, forced their way into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta this week after Moroccan border forces stepped aside. Dozens died climbing the barbed-wire fences that separate the North African coastal city from the Moroccan mainland. Spain's armed forces have mobilised to restore order, and by Friday authorities had returned more than 37,500 people to Morocco, according to Al Jazeera.
A recurring flashpoint
Ceuta and its sister enclave Melilla have long been a source of friction between Madrid and Rabat. Morocco claims both territories as its own. In the past, Rabat has used its control over migration flows to extract concessions from Spain and the European Union. In 2021, after Madrid allowed the leader of the Sahrawi independence movement to receive medical treatment in Spain, Morocco waved through some 8,000 migrants in retaliation. The current breach is on a far larger scale.
Geopolitical currents behind the surge
Analysts point to two overlapping drivers. First, Morocco is reportedly irritated by deepening ties between Spain and Algeria, which backs the Polisario Front fighting for independence in Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara. Second, and more consequentially, Rabat has cultivated a powerful alliance with the Trump administration and Benjamin Netanyahu's government in Israel.
Since the Abraham Accords normalised relations between Israel and Morocco in 2020, the kingdom has become a pivotal partner for Washington and Tel Aviv. The first Trump administration recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, a disputed territory since Spain's 1975 withdrawal. Morocco has since signed a security agreement with Israel and, in January, a joint military work plan. In February, US-chaired talks brought Moroccan, Algerian, Mauritanian and Polisario delegations together for the first time since 2019.
Meanwhile, influential voices in the US MAGA movement have turned on Spain. The American Enterprise Institute's Michael Rubin argued in March that the White House should formally recognise Ceuta and Melilla as occupied Moroccan territory, describing Spain as "a colonial power running colonies across the Strait of Gibraltar". Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart echoed the sentiment, stating the enclaves were "not in the geographic territory of Spain". Reuters reported in April that a Pentagon email outlined options against Spain, including NATO suspension, though Article 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty explicitly exempts territories in continental Africa from collective defence obligations.
The Spanish government's refusal to grant US forces access to its Rota and Morón bases during the Iran conflict, combined with Madrid's persistent failure to meet NATO defence-spending targets, has fuelled this hostility.
Western Sahara: the underlying dispute
The Western Sahara conflict traces back to the 1975 Madrid Accords, when Spain handed administration of the territory to Morocco and Mauritania. Mauritania withdrew in 1979 after heavy losses to the Polisario Front. A 16-year war followed. Morocco eventually built a 2,700-kilometre sand wall, fortified with landmines and troops, partitioning the territory. In November 2020, Moroccan forces entered the UN-patrolled buffer zone to disperse Sahrawi protesters, prompting the Polisario to declare the 1991 ceasefire void and resume armed struggle. Sporadic clashes have continued along the berm.
Rabat's diplomatic gains have accelerated. This week Morocco named the Dakhla-Tiznit highway, which runs through Western Sahara, after Donald Trump. The US president responded on Truth Social: "Thank you to Highly Respected Mohammed VI, the King of Morocco, Such a Great Honor! I look forward to traveling the entire length of this Great Highway someday, hopefully soon!".
Sánchez caught between coalition and country
The crisis arrives at a perilous moment for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. A general election is due by 2027. His government's record of raising wages and opposing US and Israeli military actions has burnished his progressive credentials, but corruption scandals and a perceived laxity on immigration have left his Socialist Party (PSOE) and its allies in Sumar and Podemos trailing the conservative People's Party (PP) and the hard-right Vox in opinion polls.
Spain's immigration profile differs from much of Europe. The bulk of low-skilled arrivals in recent years have come from Spanish-speaking Latin America, which has softened public attitudes towards immigration generally. Yet Spaniards overwhelmingly oppose irregular migration, particularly from Arab and sub-Saharan African countries.
In January, Sánchez's cabinet issued a blanket regularisation for virtually all undocumented migrants in Spain. The measure granted labour rights to millions but provoked a backlash: roughly 60 per cent of Spaniards disapproved. Critics warned it would incentivise further irregular arrivals unless paired with strict border enforcement.
A political opening for the centre-left?
Sánchez now faces a choice: clamp down in Ceuta and risk alienating the progressive flank of his coalition, or do little and suffer at the hands of the right and the broader electorate. The experience of social-democratic parties in Denmark and Slovakia suggests a tough but humane immigration policy can strengthen the left.
A member of the PSOE youth wing articulated the dilemma bluntly: "The truth is, I hope this crisis pushes the PSOE to look at the immigration policies of its Northern European sister parties and realise it's time to move away from what I see as an open-borders approach influenced by the more radical left. That means protecting those who genuinely need asylum, maintaining secure borders, and avoiding mass regularisations."
Support for Sumar has collapsed from around 13 per cent to 6 per cent, while Podemos languishes. The PSOE has won consecutive elections despite never securing more votes than the PP and Vox combined, relying on regional parties to govern.
What happens next
Sánchez has signalled a harder line. He described the Ceuta surge as "an attack on Spain's territorial integrity" and promised a stiff response. The rapid return of over 37,500 migrants suggests operational cooperation with Rabat continues beneath the diplomatic noise.
Geopolitically, Madrid can argue that a NATO member is under pressure from a partner of Washington and Tel Aviv, a framing that may resonate in Brussels and other European capitals. Domestically, the prime minister has room to outflank his coalition partners by coupling border enforcement with a credible asylum system.
Whether the Spanish left ultimately benefits remains uncertain. What is clear is that Morocco's leverage has grown, and the Ceuta frontier has become a stage where migration, great-power rivalry and the unresolved status of Western Sahara converge.