Rashid Sumaila, a professor and Canada Research Chair in interdisciplinary ocean and fisheries economics at the University of British Columbia, says the world's top sardine supplier is facing a "double whammy" of climate change and rising fuel costs. Between 2022 and 2024, Morocco's sardine landings fell by almost 46%, a drop that is now rippling through global markets.
Why the catch is collapsing
Morocco accounts for a large share of the global canned-sardine trade. The species is highly sensitive to water temperature, and warming seas are pushing sardines farther from traditional fishing grounds. As the fish move to cooler waters, fishermen must travel longer distances to locate them.
At the same time, the war in Iran and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz have driven up fuel prices. The International Energy Agency described the disruption as the largest oil-supply shock in history. Higher fuel costs mean that each kilometre at sea becomes more expensive, cutting the profitability of trips that now yield far fewer fish.
"Sardines are very sensitive to climate change, and we know it here on the Pacific Coast. When it's warm, sardines move from Mexico through the U.S., and Canadians see more sardines. They follow the temperature," said Sumaila.
He added that the same forces are at work in the Atlantic, noting that even in Portugal he observed sardines shifting northward during a heatwave.
Impact on consumers and markets
In the United States, canned fish sales have risen from $2.3 billion in 2018 to more than $2.7 billion in 2024. Sardines have become the second-most-popular canned fish after tuna, with Americans spending $3.52 billion on shelf-stable seafood last year. The shrinking supply from Morocco, a key exporter, is already tightening the market.
Frozen sardine exports from Morocco fell from about 70 % of its small-scale open-sea fish exports in 2020 to roughly 23 % in 2025, even before the fuel-price shock. Prices in Spain have risen by about 50 cents per kilogram, and similar trends are evident across Europe.
Sumaila warned that higher prices will affect households everywhere, not only in low-income nations. "It's not only in the developing world. We all feel it," he said.
Policy options and future outlook
Morocco has responded with an export ban on frozen sardines to protect domestic supply, but Sumaila doubts its long-term effectiveness, citing trade tensions between the United States and Canada. Portugal and Spain have already reduced their sardine quotas for 2026, aiming to keep stocks sustainable while prices climb.
Subsidies for fuel exacerbate the problem. Sumaila's recent research estimates global fisheries subsidies at $35.4 billion in 2018, with $22.2 billion classified as capacity-enhancing, essentially encouraging overfishing.
"If you pay for fuel, that just makes people fish more than they would," Sumaila explained.
Looking ahead, the professor suggests that coordinated international action on both climate mitigation and fuel subsidies will be essential to avoid further declines. Without such measures, the world may face higher food-price inflation and increased migration of fishing communities seeking work elsewhere.
What comes next?
Stakeholders are watching the situation closely. European Union fisheries authorities are likely to review quota allocations and consider stricter sustainability criteria. Meanwhile, consumer demand for canned fish remains strong, meaning that any supply shortfall will quickly translate into higher retail prices.
For now, the industry faces a precarious balance: adapt to a warming ocean while coping with volatile energy markets. As Sumaila put it, "It's the whole region. If the fish are moving up, that's what we face. It's like we're facing a double whammy."